A transformative shift occurred as a sharp divergence between a generational boom in artificial intelligence and a deep energy crisis began to resolve with a historic diplomatic peace deal. While equity valuations extended to break previous records in the United States and in tech-heavy Asian markets, the global economy is now emerging from the stress of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which had removed millions of oil barrels from global and daily supplies.

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated sharply in April, triggering one of the largest global energy supply shocks in modern history. The disruption removed millions of barrels of oil from daily supply, tightening global markets almost immediately.

The war in Iran has heightened uncertainty in the global economy, with hostilities materially disrupting global trade, energy flows, and capital allocations. These effects have been particularly evident in commodity markets. Oil prices surged sharply, while gold prices declined, an unusual relationship that may reflect sovereign nations liquidating gold to finance rising energy costs. 

Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have unsettled global markets, particularly energy markets. A series of attacks against key US and Israeli sites, following earlier strikes on Iran that killed several senior leaders, effectively halted marine transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman along Iran’s southern coast.

The start of 2026 has seen a dramatic shift in the geopolitical landscape following the US. The early weeks of 2026 have seen unusually strong demand for gold and other physical metals as investors respond to a weakening US dollar and heightened global uncertainty. Gold has advanced steadily, while silver, supported by its essential role in electronics, semiconductors, and medical technologies, has risen sharply over the past year.

The start of 2026 has seen a dramatic shift in the geopolitical landscape following the US military intervention in Venezuela. The capture of Nicolás Maduro, who now faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, represents a significant implementation of the Monroe Doctrine, aimed at reasserting US influence in the Western Hemisphere. While these headlines are historic, their immediate impact on global capital markets remains surprisingly contained.

The modern AI economy effectively began in 2022, when researchers learned how to combine large-scale computing with human feedback models. This breakthrough transformed raw language models into useful, interactive systems and unlocked the technologies behind today’s AI platforms. It also triggered an unexpected side effect: a nationwide wave of data-center development.

In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every two years. To date, his prediction has proven reliable, allowing technology firms to innovate in unimaginable ways. Likewise, investing possesses its own doubling rule, called the rule of 72. The rule estimates the number of years it takes for an investment to double by dividing 72 by the investment’s expected return.

Advances in computing, semiconductors, medicine, and energy have been key drivers of the current business cycle. Many of the world’s largest corporations are investing heavily in new technologies to unlock future profitability. These capital investments have not only fueled innovation but also supported the broader stock market and corporate earnings. It is working circularly throughout markets, where one company’s capital expense is another’s revenue.